By E. Lundsgaarde
Combining reports of demography, weather swap, expertise and innovation, political improvement, new actors in overseas improvement, and worldwide governance frameworks, this booklet highlights the main underlying determinants of switch within the African context and key uncertainties in regards to the continent's destiny improvement clients.
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Additional info for Africa Toward 2030: Challenges for Development Policy
The position that scenario analysis adopts with respect to the acceptance of multiple alternative futures as equally valid frameworks for understanding how the future could unfold has led to the application of scenario techniques to create neutral spaces for dialogue, where individuals with different interests and divergent viewpoints have license to develop competing futures or shared futures in the process of exchanging ideas in a group context. A classical example of the dialogue-promoting purpose of scenarios is the Mont Fleur scenario exercise on the future of South Africa carried out during the transition from the apartheid regime to democratic rule.
Social scientific research, that presents historical narratives or assesses the relative importance of key variables of interest through statistical analysis can draw attention to causes of change and highlight constellations of factors that may lead to future outcomes that tend to resemble those of the past. Common approaches to exploring the future differ from dominant social scientific methods for making sense of the past and present because of their emphasis in outlining the possibility of multiple distinct outcomes and their goal of accounting for a broad range of uncertainties rather than presenting a high level of certainty in their analyses.
2009) The End of ODA: Death and Rebirth of a Global Public Policy. Working Paper 167. Washington, DC: Center for Global Development. Sumner, A. and Melamed, C. (2010) Introduction – The MDGs and Beyond: Pro-Poor Policy in a Changing World. IDS Bulletin 41(1): 1–6. Sumner, A. and Tiwari, M. (2009) After 2015: International Development Policy at a Crossroads. London: Palgrave Macmillan. OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) (2010) International Development Statistics Online.