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By Harvey, T.F.; Peters, L.; Serduke, F.J.D.; Hall, C.; Stephens, D.R

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Harvey,E. L. Lee,E. H. Moor,L. G. Peters, J. R. Walton,and A. Weston, “PlutoniumReleaseProbabilities and Consequences for Peacekeeper in MinutemanSilos(PIMS),”Report DDV91-0031,July 22,199l. 18. G. Briggs, “Plume Rise Predictions,”Lectures on Air Pollution and Environmental Analyses (ed. Haugen),AmericanMeteorological Society,1975,pp. 53-111. impact 19. G. S. , DE84-005177(327), 1984. 20. K. Foster, R. Freis, andJ. Nasstrom,“Incorporationof an ExplosiveCloud Rise Code into ARAC’s ADPIC Transportand DiffusionModel,”LawrenceLivermoreNationalLaboratory,Livermore,CA, UCRL-ID-103443, 1990.

Likewise, estimated numbers of latent cancer fatalities vary from much less than one for a fuel-fire accident, to a best estimate of 40 for an HE detonation, to as many as 8000 for a nuclear detonation. Prompt deaths from a 1-kt nuclear detonation on the base could vary from 100 to 2000. Table 11 On-site and off-site effects to individuals FUEL FIRE Best Estimate High and property. 04 100 2 1 650 01 0 1,300 0 300 1 2500 01 1 5000 2 Estimates To demonstrate approximate ranges of consequences resulting from parameter uncertainties, as an example, we used the respirable-fraction uncertainty and wind direction uncertainty.

If, however, the Pu melts before it is exposed directly to the fire, which is possible, the resulting liquid droplets would fume and burn on contact with air, releasing one- to two-orders of magnitude more Pu in the respirable size range. Thus, we have chosen an uncertainty distribution that ranges from small values seen in controlled laboratory experiments with metallic Pu being burned to those much larger values demonstrated by British researchers when liquid droplets fume and bum. The cumulative distribution used is shown in Fig.

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